Tag Archives: economy

Incredible

This time last year I was sitting on my much depleted Summer reserves

By the end of January I literally closed my business account with $12.00 in it

2016?

The strongest showing since 2011

Of course I have restructured, scaled down and gotten rid on most of my employees

But still I am coming into the Thanksgiving holiday solidly overbooked and with more work than I can handle

I am already booked almost to Christmas and am going to have to work my butt off to keep up

Since the bust we have dumped almost every last dime that we saved to keep the business floating

Now it would appear that I will be heading into the dead zone (Dec- early March) with the prospect of survival

Should I say that I am heading into the new season with a sense of….

Thanksgiving?

I guess you could

But if I suck some in the meantime, that is why

Nose to the grindstone

 

 

2016 off to a better start

Here is hoping anyway

2015 was a bad , bad year

In addition to a slew of death and personal tragedy, financially it was the worst since the bust

Our business revenues were only slightly higher than in ’09

The only difference being that all of our savings have gone back into the business to keep it floating for 6 Yrs. and now the till is empty

By Christmas we had gone so broke that after traveling up to see Shay and gassing the car up we had no Christmas gifts for the grand kids

(The little one tells me “It’s okay Papa we don’t need presents, just so you are here”)

But now things are starting to swing

Suddenly we are back to 20o7 levels

Man, I am praying that we have finally caught a break

The past years have been an extremely stressful business environment and we have stripped down to bare bones

Hopefully the economy won’t tank again

 

The take from Iowa

Well, the one thing we can take from Iowa is that no one anywhere wants Jeb Bush

Enough with the Bush’s

Someone asked me if I thought that Trump was a conservative

My answer was fairly simple

GWB was a conservative

He gave us medicare part D

No child left behind

TARP

A huge national debt

China most favored nation status

Two wars that destabilized the middle east and allowed the spread of Muslim insurgencies that now control half of the African continent

The economic collapse of 2008

And the list goes on

I don’t think it matters at this point what label Trump wears

As long as it is not Bush

Canada officially in recession

“Ottawa (AFP) – Canada fell into recession in the first half of the year, posting its weakest results since the 2008 global financial crisis, government data confirmed Tuesday.

The figures add to escalating fears about the health of the global economy, with world stock markets plunging farther on Tuesday as more gloomy evidence emerged of China’s economic slowdown — China has been a major engine of global growth.

The grim numbers were also bad news for Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, just weeks before elections.

The Canadian economy contracted 0.5 percent in the second quarter after retreating 0.8 percent in the previous three months, according to Statistics Canada.

By comparison, the US economy grew 3.7 percent in the first quarter.

Canada, the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, has been hit hard by the plunge in world oil prices from above $100 last year to about $52 now.”

http://news.yahoo.com/canada-officially-recession-first-half-2015-131114485.html;_ylt=AwrC1ClGpOVVGS0A6AzQtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTBybGY3bmpvBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMyBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–

For sure our economy grew 3.7% in the 1st quarter

And I am a cheese maker

And my cheese factory makes the worlds finest cheese

And I am famous for inventing and marketing the world renowned goat juicer and chum maker

Ghost cities of China: How China still has 7% growth

“Little did we know that most of that iron ore being shipped to Guangzhou from Rio de Janeiro and Port Hedland, Australia was going to build Chinese cities; cities that would remain vacant for years. China single-handedly topped the phrase “bridge to nowhere” and made ghost cities a euphemism for lousy development planning in the world’s No. 2 economy. Anyone can build a useless overpass, but it takes China to build a city for a million people with no buyers in sight.

The naysayers loved the Western media’s discovery of China’s ghost cities. It was evidence that China’s growth of the last 20 years was based on building things nobody needed or wanted. This was planned obsolescence on a grand scale. And now that the economy is slowing, what will become of those cities? Many of them are debt burdens carried by the developers who haven’t sold a single unit.

From shopping malls to soccer stadiums, hundreds of new cities in China are largely empty. And yet more cities are still being built deep in the heart of the country. All in hopes that its rural population will one day move to a flat in a city without a mayor. It’s plausible, of course. That’s because over the next 15 years, the country’s urban population will be 1 billion; three times that of the United States.”

What will become of these cities going forward? Here’s a quick answer: a handful might be shuttered. Most will be filled. New ones will undoubtedly be built.

China’s developing its urban architecture three ways: new cities (xinshi), new districts (xinqu) and the so-called townification (chengzhenhua). Townification is quite a departure from the way Chinese cities have developed to date. This is the transformation of small rural centers and even tribal villages and building a small urban center around them. The Communist Party planners in Beijing want to urbanize over 100 million rural Chinese over the next five years alone. That would require the construction of 50 Bostons, or six Shanghais, by 2020. Townification is lower intensity than that. These are small cities rather than sky scraper zones designed to house suits and high heels. It’s more widespread than traditional urbanization, and will define the way China develops socioeconomically over the coming years.

Roughly 40% of the 300 million Chinese expected to move into a city by 2030 will mostly be moving to smaller cities in the “chengzhenhua” system. Rather than migrating to cities, the cities will be built around them instead.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/07/20/what-will-become-of-chinas-ghost-cities/

Everything is better in Europe China

If we need growth, why don’t we just model our economy after Europe China?

After all the Chinese model is working out so well

Breaking news! HENNY PENNY KILLED BY FALLING STOCK MARKET!

“A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.

Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.

“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don’t assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work,” he tweeted.

“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”

Read more:
China stock market crisis: FTSE 100 sheds billions in single day
Bloodbath for global markets as US markets nosedive
Chinese investors are so angry they have started kidnapping people

Mr McBride credited his former boss Gordon Brown with preventing a cataclysm by nationalising the banking system during the 2008 crash.

“We were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn’t worked),” he said. “and what’s coming is on 20 times that scale”.

Financial markets are unstable and periodically suffer crises which can have devastating consequences for the wider economy.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stock-up-on-canned-food-for-stock-market-crash-warns-former-gordon-brown-advisor-10469509.html

Yeah, the news really is that good

The Chinese have proven that you cannot stave collapse off indefinetly

Sure, they were building three Chicago sized cities every three years

But you can’t do that forever

Whomever actually believed that China was still growing at 12% annually after the crash was deluded

And if you don’t already have at the very,very least a solid one month supply of  food you haven’t been paying attention.

I know I keep saying that it is coming, but hey even a broken clock is right once a day

The U.S. has an economic crisis on its hands that one economist thinks is worse than the Great Recession.

The U.S. has an economic crisis on its hands that one economist thinks is worse than the Great Recession.

Over the past year, productivity has increased just 0.3 percent and a mere 0.5 percent over the past five years, during which the economy has struggled to escape the clutches of the financial crisis and the recession that supposedly ended in mid-2009.

The result has been growth in job creation but little corresponding rise in wages and, subsequently, living standards. It’s essentially been the economy’s dirty little secret even as Wall Street forecasters continue to project breakout growth that never seems to come.

“This topic is still getting almost no attention—particularly among presidential candidates—but there is a case to be made that the stagnation in productivity has been more damaging to the real living standards of Americans than the Great Recession,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients. “Productivity growth is the primary driver of gains in real wages.”

Indeed, wage growth has been stuck around 2 percent or lower for pretty much all of the post-recessionary period. So while stock market investors enjoy the fruits of never-before-seen easy monetary policy—with the S&P 500 up about 210 percent since March 2009—it’s been a different story for much of the labor force.

“The longer this slump goes on, the harder it is to believe that the economy will just snap out of it,” Ashworth said. “For all the talk of secular stagnation and permanently weak demand, it may be supply-side problems that are the bigger problem.”

“The U.S. has an economic crisis on its hands that one economist thinks is worse than the Great Recession.

Over the past year, productivity has increased just 0.3 percent and a mere 0.5 percent over the past five years, during which the economy has struggled to escape the clutches of the financial crisis and the recession that supposedly ended in mid-2009.

The result has been growth in job creation but little corresponding rise in wages and, subsequently, living standards. It’s essentially been the economy’s dirty little secret even as Wall Street forecasters continue to project breakout growth that never seems to come.

“This topic is still getting almost no attention—particularly among presidential candidates—but there is a case to be made that the stagnation in productivity has been more damaging to the real living standards of Americans than the Great Recession,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients. “Productivity growth is the primary driver of gains in real wages.” ()

Indeed, wage growth has been stuck around 2 percent or lower for pretty much all of the post-recessionary period. So while stock market investors enjoy the fruits of never-before-seen easy monetary policy—with the S&P 500 up about 210 percent since March 2009—it’s been a different story for much of the labor force.

“The longer this slump goes on, the harder it is to believe that the economy will just snap out of it,” Ashworth said. “For all the talk of secular stagnation and permanently weak demand, it may be supply-side problems that are the bigger problem.”

To be sure, there are some signs that wages are thawing. Unit labor costs are up 2.1 percent over the past year, providing some encouragement that inflation—the good kind—is on the rise.

However, the anemic production numbers triggered worry that the economy is no closer to 3 percent-plus gross domestic product growth than it’s been throughout the recovery period. As has been pointed out many times, this is the worst recovery since the Great Depression, with GDP unable to crack 2.5 percent for any calendar year since the crisis.

Some economists already are retreating from their growth hopes, with Ashworth now wondering whether “the economy’s potential growth rate appears to have fallen well below 2 percent.”

“This has massive implications for the economy,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “As people are finally realizing, it means that potential growth is sharply lower than where most economists were assuming up until recently. These data suggest that potential real growth is well short of 2 percent (possibly even below 1 percent), which explains why the labor market has tightened so much over the past five years despite what was considered at the time to be tepid GDP growth.”

Excerpted from CNBC, the rest is here: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/this-is-more-damagingthan-the-great-recession.html

Irregular blog posts

Due to the rapidly improving economy I have eliminated one of my installation crews and have returned to performing the work myself.

My posting will be spotty at best.

Thank you for your support…..

“The world economy is sailing across the ocean without any lifeboats to use in case of emergency”

“The world economy is disturbingly close to stall speed. The United Nations has cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.8pc, the latest of the multinational bodies to retreat.

We are not yet in the danger zone but this pace is only slightly above the 2.5pc rate that used to be regarded as a recession for the international system as a whole.”

“Stephen King from HSBC warns that the global authorities have alarmingly few tools to combat the next crunch, given that interest rates are already zero across most of the developed world, debts levels are at or near record highs, and there is little scope for fiscal stimulus.

“The world economy is sailing across the ocean without any lifeboats to use in case of emergency,” he said.”

And here in the U.S.

“Each of the past four US recoveries has been weaker than the last one. The average growth rate has fallen from 4.5pc in the early 1980s to nearer 2pc this time. The US fiscal deficit has dropped to 2.8pc but is expected to climb again as pension and health care costs bite, even if the economy does well.

The US cannot easily launch a fresh New Deal. Public debt was just 38pc on GDP when Franklin Roosevelt took power in 1933, and there were few contingent liabilities hanging over future US finances.

“Fiscal stimulus – a novel idea at the time – may have been controversial, but the chances of it working to boost economic activity were quite high given the healthy starting position. Today, it is much more difficult to make the same argument,” he said.”

“JP Morgan estimates that the US economy contracted at an rate of 1.1pc in the first quarter, far worse than originally supposed.

The instant tracking indicator of the Atlanta Fed – GDPnow – shows little sign that America is shaking off its mystery virus. Growth was just 0.7pc (annualised) in mid-May.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625098/HSBC-fears-world-recession-with-no-lifeboats-left.html

Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse. Read the whole article, it’s nothing but great news from one end of the globe to the other.

Better  buckle up…..This is starting to get an air of inevitability about it.

Steve Wynn: “The idea that America is in the midst of a great recovery is pure fiction”

Well, the idea that America is in the midst of a great recovery is pure fiction. It’s a lie. It’s a jobless recovery,” Wynn said. “Because recoveries are marked by the level of real employment. And if you count the people who have left the work force, real unemployment is 15 to 20 percent.”

Not only is unemployment much higher than the “official” rate of 5.5 percent, but Wynn said the Consumer Price Index, used to measure inflation, is also rigged in such a way that it doesn’t accurately reflect what real Americans experience on a daily basis. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. had -0.1 percent inflation for the 12 months ended in March 2015. Inflation doesn’t exist.

Wynn says that’s a sham.

“If you take real inflation, and you’ve got to count energy and food and all that stuff, real inflation is much higher than they say it is,” Wynn said. “My employees’ take home pay, in spite of the increases we give them, their paychecks are 90-cent paychecks, 90 cents on the dollar. It’s very difficult for the middle class in America to keep up because of the inflationary pressure and the devaluation of the dollar.”

http://www.wnd.com/2015/05/steve-wynn-economic-recovery-pure-fiction/

But ,Whaaaa? It’s all better now, kind of, but we can’t feel it…

“When I came into office, our economy was in crisis,” Obama said.

The president then cited lower unemployment, private sector job growth, and deficit cuts as evidence of his administration’s success. “I can put my record against any leader around the world in terms of digging ourselves out of a terrible, almost unprecedented financial crisis,” Obama said.

When asked if the president thought the American people could feel that economic success, Obama said, “They don’t feel it.”

“The reason they don’t feel it is because incomes and wages are not going up,” he said. “

Gold Hits $1235 As Commodities Crash To 12-Year Lows Amid $45 Oil

From Zero hedge:

“The only other times that Bloomberg’s broad-based (i.e. not all OPEC’s fault) Commodity Index has fallen so far so fast was in 1999 (before stocks crashed) and 2008 (before stocks crashed). At 12-year lows, the raw material of the world’s economies is flashing a big fat red warning signal that all is not well (despite stocks being a ‘smidge’ off record highs). WTI traded with a $45 handle… but apart from that, everything’s great (oh wait and the 230 pip USDJPY roundtrip). Amid all this turmoil, gold just broke to $1235 – its highest in a month.”

The rest here:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-12/commodities-crash-12-year-lows-amid-45-oil

We are already at the 98 mark, but the real question is whether this is being driven by overproduction or is the glut being caused by the slowing world economy. If the latter is the case then we are really going to be in for a ride.

When everything crashed in 2008 we were coming off of a booming economy. This time if it crashes we are smack dead in the middle of a shit economy and the repercussions will be far worse than before.

Stay stocked up and be prepared to do things that you wouldn’t normally do.

Economy shrinks 1% in first quarter

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/05/29/q1-economy-shrinks-1-percent

“The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its revised assessment of the first quarter of 2014’s Gross Domestic Product and revised it down to -1%. The initial assessment said the economy had at least grown, but only by .01%.”

Forget what the regime mouth pieces tell you; There are more hard times ahead. Our economy is in deep crap and this is just the tip of the iceberg.  Right now the banks are over capitalized by hundreds of billions of dollars due to QE. Once credit loosens up and that money begins to enter the economy in the form of loans, inflation is going to start in real time. I have personally divested myself of a lot of cash and put it into tangible goods that should weather inflation well. Let me put it this way… When bullets become money, I will be rich… Rich I say…..

70 Straight Days: Treasury Says Debt Stuck at Exactly $16,699,396,000,000.00

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/70-straight-days-treasury-says-debt-stuck-exactly-0000000000000000

Lies and more lies; We are no longer under the rule of law. In blatant disregard they do as they will. It is really going to be ugly when this all blows up.